Roulette and the Gambler’s Fallacy: Are You A Believer or Not?

Man’s success in evolution is in part, affected by his unique perception towards the phenomenon of cyclical events. Almost all of the things important to our survival happens in such a way that it follows a “predictable” pattern. Take for example our food: hunter-gatherers of the primitive times were able to feed themselves because they were able to know that a specific kind of animal would return in this time of the season; farmers, on the other hand, were able to grow, harvest, and stock crops because they also observed the cycle of the season.

This consequently leads us to believe that things which seems to happen randomly in this world is not really… random.

If we noticed a flock of migrating birds gathering at a lake, we would assume right away that soon, they would all fly out towards north because it’s that time of the year for them to do so.

In the same manner, if we get hundred heads in a coin toss, we would think right away that they “gathered together” and a specific event (a tail, perhaps) would likely to happen next.

This way of thinking is called the Gambler’s Fallacy. This “mistaken belief,” however, has long been debunked by people who like to take things as it is.

For the skeptics of the fallacy, with regards to the coin toss scenario, the hundred heads didn’t just happen for a reason. They simply “occur” and each of the tossing events have no direct connection to the last outcome.

By definition, the gambler’s fallacy is a belief that any random process becomes “less random” and more predictable when they repeatedly happen. This phenomenon happens commonly in gambling, hence the attribution of the name.

A specific example would be in the game of craps. A player, having failed to win in a number of rolls, may feel that the dice are now “due” for a certain number and would likely to come up with a favourable result.

Gambler’s Fallacy and Roulette

Another famous example of a gambling fallacy which happens in roulette was back in August 18, 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino. According to history, a ball fell in Black for 26 times, consecutively. An extremely rare occurrence, gamblers held the belief that at a certain length of series, a Red would eventually come up. In the end, they lost millions in bets for betting against Black.

This further gave rise to the notion among roulette players that if one lose a number of games in a row, he is bound to make a big win “anytime” soon, which is why he needs to keep on playing.

If you come to think of it, the premise somehow makes sense. It is known for a fact that each spin made in a particular round has completely nothing to do with the previous result or the ones that would come next to it in the future. What if during a series of Reds, you followed your guts to bet on a Black. Since the next spin is an independent event, thus there’s an almost equal chance for Black to occur as with Red.

Should You Believe the Gambler’s Fallacy?

To be successful in roulette, one has to keep in mind that roulette, like any casino game relies purely on chances. Unless done illegally, there is no known device or technique that one could use to affect the outcome.

If you ask us, it is better not to bank on the idea in which you have to pile up on loses so that you will get a big win later. Each spin is its own event. Take it as it is. Bet accordingly. This way, you become more of a cautious and mindful roulette player rather than a gambler who puts faith on some unforeseen forces.

What is California Roulette and Is It Worth the Try?

While you might think that the extremely popular game of roulette can be found in any casino establishments, offline or online, you’d be surprised to know that this casino game is still being outlawed in California. Yes, you read that right: roulette, as we know it, is prohibited to be played in this American State.

As stipulated under the California gambling law, any games in which the outcome is being decided by dice or balls are to be banned. Now, we can discuss the rationale behind this gambling regulation in its full extent but it’ll probably just bore you to death. However, the main point of the argument circles around the clear distinction between games of chance and games of skill.

Somehow, Californian legislators think that roulette, being a game that involves a spinning wheel, can be considered entirely as a game of chance. Card games like baccarat, are being looked upon as a game of skill, on the other hand.

Needless to say, you can’t stop lovers of roulette from getting their dose of some spinning wheel action which is why in 2004, something good came up for the game. In that year, California formally legalized what is called California Roulette.

The game basically carries resemblance to the Vegas style, but the wheel has a different story. Instead of a ball-bearing wheel, California Roulette is played using a deck of 38 numbered cards.

The cards pretty much substitute the numbered pockets of a traditional American roulette wheel. But the thing is, each cards used in California Roulette has a color and suit similar to a deck of playing cards we fondly know of.

So how does the game work?

The California Roulette betting rules works in such a way a European or American roulette game does wherein the player bet on a color or number. Additionally, they can place wagers on the suit of cards.

The cards used in California Roulette are placed in an automatic shuffler. The dealer draws a card from that deck and this will determine the winning bet/s.

How to play the game?

Playing California Roulette is as easy as the classic roulette. In this game, there will be at most 8 players going up against the house. As per the usual, any correct prediction of the outcome will be paid with a corresponding payout.

To make the game more interesting, developers include two well-loved French roulette rules: the En Prison and the La Partage.

La Partage gives the players the chance to take back half of their losing even money bets. En Prison, meanwhile, holds “in prison” a losing even money bet for the next round. If the player’s bet wins, he gets his money back in full. If not, the casino forfeits the losing bet.

We still have to find online casinos offering the game of California Roulette. For sure, there are game developers keen enough to make one. Given its popularity, at least among players in California, it’s safe to bet that an online version of California Roulette will make its way to the Internet in no time.

As for our thoughts of the game, we think that variety is an ingredient which can make this life quite more interesting to live. And so, we do give our thumbs up to anyone who wish to spice up their roulette gaming experience.

May you have all the luck and enjoyment in playing California Roulette.